Summers could last longer with increased drought risk, says Met Office
Research found that ‘summer-like’ weather patterns will lead to warmer and drier autumns, as well as hotter and drier summers from the mid-2020s.
By Emily Beament for The Independent
Future summers in the UK could last longer with an increased risk of drought, according to research from the Met Office. The study found that “summer-like” weather patterns will lead to warmer and drier autumns, as well as hotter and drier summers from the mid-2020s onwards. This weather pattern could increase the risk of drought, said Daniel Cotterill, the lead scientist behind the study.
“Using climate models and the UK Climate Projections, our research found that the largely ‘summer-like’ weather patterns – bringing drier conditions – will begin to extend into the start of autumn,” he said. “And weather patterns such as those dominated by large low-pressure systems will tend to occur slightly less in autumn in future. “Although we don’t expect to see this shift in pattern imminently, a key finding from this study is that from the mid-2020s warmer and drier autumns following hotter and drier summers could increase drought risk.”
The study also shows that while the UK is likely to see less rainfall in autumn on average, there will also be an increased likelihood of extreme rainfall events between the drier periods. It comes as all of south-west England is in drought after some of the driest conditions in nearly 90 years, the Environment Agency said. The Wessex area – which includes Bristol, Somerset, Dorset, south Gloucestershire and parts of Wiltshire – has been declared in drought status.
