State of the climate: Start of 2022 is the fifth warmest on record

After a slightly cooler 2021 on the Earth’s surface, the world is on track for 2022 to be somewhere between the fourth and eighth warmest year since records began in the mid-1850s.

Zeke Hausfather on Carbon Brief

After a slightly cooler 2021 on the Earth’s surface, the world is on track for 2022 to be somewhere between the fourth and eighth warmest year since records began in the mid-1850s.

It is very unlikely to be a record warm year due to moderately strong La Niña conditions in the early part of the year that are projected to continue for at least the next six months.

Not every year is expected to set a new record for the surface – and 2022 annual temperatures will likely end up well in-line with the long-term warming trend that the world has experienced over the past five decades.

The first four months of 2022 were the fifth warmest start to a year on record so far. March 2022 saw record warmth over China and large parts of southern Asia, as well as exceptionally high temperatures in the Arctic. In Antarctica, a March heatwave saw temperatures nearly 40C above normal in the eastern part of the continent.

Arctic sea ice currently is on the low end of its historical range, while Antarctic sea ice saw the lowest sea ice extent on record in late February.

Fifth warmest year on record so far

Global surface temperatures are recorded and reported by a number of different international groups, including NASA, NOAA, Met Office Hadley Centre/UEA and Berkeley Earth. Copernicus/ECMWF also produces a surface temperature estimate based on a combination of measurements and a weather model – an approach known as “reanalysis”.

Read the full story on Carbon Brief here.